Federal Election 2010
Aug. 21st, 2010 07:00 pmAll results courtesy of the ABC and the Electoral Commission - I merely report what I see.
At 7pm AEST - ALP 41, Liberals/Nationals (abbr LNP) 45, other (independents, non-Green minor parties) 4.
Needed to form government: 76.
Virtual tally room (official Australian Electoral Commission figures): http://vtr.aec.gov.au/
At 7:03, ALP42, LNP48, Oth 4.
The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (Government station): http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/ running total, far faster than I can do it.
I note that the ABC's TV coverage and the tally given on the website seem to differ. I don't know what to make of this. At this stage of the night, not much of the vote has been counted (we are discussing trends based on single-figure percentages in some cases) and indeed Western Australia is still voting.
The ABC's coverage is excellent, and the ABC's site offers a watch-live option.
All of the interest is on the lower house - the House of Representatives - because the majority party there (or the plurality if things go all wonky) determines who formally forms the government. However, the real excitement is going to be in the Senate, where the Australian Greens are probably going to hold the balance of power. This could be a very bad thing - they are very much against CO2-producing industries but they are also ideologically opposed to new hydroelectric systems and nuclear. They are also a party of very, VERY far-left (bordering on insane) social and foreign policy, a fact which voters using them to lodge a protest or who blindly vote for them "for the environment's sake" appear not to understand.
7:26 - an overall swing against Labor of nearly 6%, much of which has been slurped up by the Greens and the rest by the Libs/Nats and independents. The Greens aren't numerous enough in any lower house seat (except possibly Melbourne) to win it; distribution of preferences will decide close contests, and Labor and the Greens are understood to have done a deal in some (but not all) electorates in this regard. Some of the Labor gains (where they've made them) have been absorbed by swings TO their own sitting members, which adds up to wasted votes.
ETA 7:33, Maxine McKew, the journalist who beat Howard (on Greens preferences!) has just been nailed by the Liberal contender. Howard is avenged. :p ETA 9:30: Foreign Minister Stephen Smith, eulogising her, calls her "a good local member" - but I beg to differ - IMO if she'd been that, her electorate would have returned her.
9:12pm - Looking like a hung parliament, one Green who has already sold his soul to Labor, one independent who used to be a Green (and will possibly run home to mama if things get politically brutal) and three relatively conservative Independents who will not necessarily go with the Coalition.
9:30pm, the TV screen is showing ALP 68, L/NP 69, Greens 1, Other 5, doubt 8. If those eight ALL go the Coalition's way, it will form government in its own right, probably buffered by the conservative independents. If it comes out in front, all I can conclude is that Tony Abbott will be offered the chance to form a minority government (and of course vice versa for Julia Gillard). If it goes right down to the wire all the way, the incumbent will probably get the first shot.
Wait... ALP 68, L/NP 70. OMFG this is a nailbiter.
At 7pm AEST - ALP 41, Liberals/Nationals (abbr LNP) 45, other (independents, non-Green minor parties) 4.
Needed to form government: 76.
Virtual tally room (official Australian Electoral Commission figures): http://vtr.aec.gov.au/
At 7:03, ALP42, LNP48, Oth 4.
The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (Government station): http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/ running total, far faster than I can do it.
I note that the ABC's TV coverage and the tally given on the website seem to differ. I don't know what to make of this. At this stage of the night, not much of the vote has been counted (we are discussing trends based on single-figure percentages in some cases) and indeed Western Australia is still voting.
The ABC's coverage is excellent, and the ABC's site offers a watch-live option.
All of the interest is on the lower house - the House of Representatives - because the majority party there (or the plurality if things go all wonky) determines who formally forms the government. However, the real excitement is going to be in the Senate, where the Australian Greens are probably going to hold the balance of power. This could be a very bad thing - they are very much against CO2-producing industries but they are also ideologically opposed to new hydroelectric systems and nuclear. They are also a party of very, VERY far-left (bordering on insane) social and foreign policy, a fact which voters using them to lodge a protest or who blindly vote for them "for the environment's sake" appear not to understand.
7:26 - an overall swing against Labor of nearly 6%, much of which has been slurped up by the Greens and the rest by the Libs/Nats and independents. The Greens aren't numerous enough in any lower house seat (except possibly Melbourne) to win it; distribution of preferences will decide close contests, and Labor and the Greens are understood to have done a deal in some (but not all) electorates in this regard. Some of the Labor gains (where they've made them) have been absorbed by swings TO their own sitting members, which adds up to wasted votes.
ETA 7:33, Maxine McKew, the journalist who beat Howard (on Greens preferences!) has just been nailed by the Liberal contender. Howard is avenged. :p ETA 9:30: Foreign Minister Stephen Smith, eulogising her, calls her "a good local member" - but I beg to differ - IMO if she'd been that, her electorate would have returned her.
9:12pm - Looking like a hung parliament, one Green who has already sold his soul to Labor, one independent who used to be a Green (and will possibly run home to mama if things get politically brutal) and three relatively conservative Independents who will not necessarily go with the Coalition.
9:30pm, the TV screen is showing ALP 68, L/NP 69, Greens 1, Other 5, doubt 8. If those eight ALL go the Coalition's way, it will form government in its own right, probably buffered by the conservative independents. If it comes out in front, all I can conclude is that Tony Abbott will be offered the chance to form a minority government (and of course vice versa for Julia Gillard). If it goes right down to the wire all the way, the incumbent will probably get the first shot.
Wait... ALP 68, L/NP 70. OMFG this is a nailbiter.